While most pundits are popping champagne corks over the economy the combination of high unemployment and uncertainty confirms our shrewdly conservative market neutral approach. The recession rocking the foundations of the economy is the best WAKE-UP call we could get to take the reins of our own financial future. While the government may be focusing on new ways to accelerate the country’s hiring and growth we'll be focusing on ways to accelerate our own growth.
February
• 7.53% - 13.38% Return on Investment, 87.68% - 91.78% Probability of Win.
• 11.86% - 13.07% Return on Investment, 88.91% - 88.27% Probability of Win.
The Markets and How They Affect Us
It is now projected that the Federal Reserve’s two rounds of asset purchases, totaling $2.3 trillion, will increase private sector payrolls by about 3 million jobs by 2012. The decision to start a 2nd round of purchases is intended to prevent the economic recovery from stumbling into a pot hole – the Fed's stated goal being maximum employment and price stability--but some wonder if they are just trying to pay the governments 'road to hell' bar tab.
Oddly enough, even with an improving economic outlook, the Fed's most recent meetings show that they aren't willing to scale back their plans to purchase $600 billion in Treasuries. Republican lawmakers along with officials in China, Germany and Brazil have criticized these purchases citing that they weaken the dollar and give rise to asset-price bubbles.
The U.S. reported fewer jobs being added in Friday's Non Farm Payroll Report (103,000) than was originally forecasted (150,000) which confirms the Fed Chairman’s opinion that it would take another 4 – 5 more years for the labor market to completely rebound. As GDP growth continues to accelerate, we’re like to see moderate improvements in the labor market; however, it will be a long time before the Fed changes their course and some wonder if they can. With a Federal debt exceeding 12 trillion any sizeable interest rate increase would cripple the government's finances (and you thought your adjustable rate mortgage was a problem!).
So we've got a market that continues to climb propped up by an ever-increasing stream of 'free dollars'--sounds like fun (for awhile). The question is--how do we make money on it?
What are the Secrets of the Week?
We have two new plays for the week –Our 1st play of the week is on an oil company that offers us a sweet 7.53% - 13.38% return on investment with a 87.68% - 91.78% probability of win. Our 2nd play is on a country ETF that offers an outstanding 11.86% - 13.07% return on investment with a 88.91% - 88.27% probability of win.
You can get in on this week's trades along with two new high-probability trades per week by clicking here now.
God Bless and have an awesome trading week!
Robert
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